Test of Character for the Irish; Can a Rebuilding Notre Dame Hold off the Wolf Pack?

Notre Dame vs. Nevada
in the House That Rockne Built
Saturday, Sept. 10, 2016
3:30 pm ET, NBC national television broadcast and Notre Dame Football Radio

Notre Dame, in a rebuilding year where they lost 10 players to the NFL, comes off a bruising dogfight 2OT loss at Texas, aggravated by a short week after what was a long road trip for a late Sunday night game in Austin, including sleep deprivation following an apparent red-eye flight. Defense was spotty, already apparently vulnerable to periodic gashes in Brian Van Gorder’s scheme, even back when they had a full complement of experienced personnel.

The Irish are blessed with two potentially great, big-time quarterbacks in Deshone Kizer and Malik Zaire, with starting quarterback Kizer boasting the most game experience and currently having the most game-day flash. Notre Dame nevertheless has been quiet at the tight end position, and lost their team captain wide receiver Torrii Hunter Jr. after a concussion-causing dirty hit in the Texas game, followed by a dirtier non-call, non-review, and breathtakingly cynical failure to act by the “Big-12” conference. With Hunter still out for Nevada, the Irish wide receiver corps looks like a diamond-in-the-rough with talent and flash yet lacking experience. While the officiating let-down might have ended up tipping the balance in the game’s final result, the loss is now in the record books.

One issue is the kind of character Notre Dame will show in response to the bitter loss, short week and physical exhaustion. Under Brian Kelly, the character test has produced admittedly mixed results. At times, Notre Dame has “gutted it out” in tough games against strong opponents, pulling out wins. Other times, Notre Dame has come out flat in big games. More interestingly, other times, Notre Dame has played in close contests against weaker opponents, where they played down to the level of the opposition and allowed a weaker opponent to stay in the game. That included losing a home opener to a South Florida team coached by former Notre Dame assistant Skip Holtz, a game that set in motion an addiction to turnovers, that year, that dragged on for Notre Dame much of that season.  Even worse, there was the season, a few years ago, when Notre Dame was one of multiple teams giving a tough game to Florida State, only to see their effort snuffed out by bad officiating at the end. After that game, Notre Dame went into to the tank, on a skid until the bowl game. To be fair, part of that skid was the result of coaching errors, such as going for two when nobody else would have, or playing a hurt quarterback far too long across multiple games, when he needed rest for a shoulder injury.  Yet, some of those losses also involved playing down to the level of a weaker opponent and allowing an unexpected dogfight with a weaker opponent to turn into a loss.

Notre Dame has actually quietly backed themselves into a three-game losing streak, dating back into 2015. Ironically, the last game Notre Dame won was a dogfight in which they played down to the level of a much weaker opponent. After squeaking by a Boston College team with a losing record, winning 19-16, Notre Dame actually looked less likely to be positioned for the playoff, before then losing yet another close game against a lower-ranked Stanford team, and getting embarrassed by Ohio State in their bowl game, a contest in which Notre Dame never really appeared to have a chance to win.

This week Notre Dame takes on a Nevada Wolf Pack who has been a bowl team most of the past decade, including a bowl win in 2015. Nevada is coached by another former Notre Dame assistant coach, Brian Polian, who was fired when Notre Dame hired Brian Kelly.

Last week, Nevada had a curious overtime win against Cal Poly of Div. I-AA/FCS. It is unclear whether Nevada was holding back in anticipation of Notre Dame.

The Wolf Pack were strong enough to jump out to a 21-7 first-quarter lead, and a 24-10 half-time lead. Yet Nevada only scored three points in the second quarter, and was scoreless in the second half of regulation, while giving up 14 unanswered points in the fourth quarter. However, after up two touchdowns on two long drives by Cal Poly in the fourth quarter, in overtime Nevada suddenly held Cal Poly to 6 yards on three plays, limiting them to a field goal. Then, after being scoreless for an entire half, Nevada marched 25 yards in four plays for the winning touchdown.

Was Nevada holding back after coming out strong, in anticipation of Notre Dame? For example, were they more limited in their play-calling, or otherwise, only to then come on strong again to pull out the victory in overtime? It is difficult to think of a team or its coach being willing to hold back to the point of being taken into overtime. On the other hand, they might not have thought Cal Poly would get that last touchdown in regulation, and might not have responded fast enough.

A few things that did stand out — Nevada gave up 383 yards of rushing to Cal Poly, at over 5 yards per carry, while limiting Cal Poly to 62 yards passing at less than a 50% completion rate for Cal Poly. In a balanced attack for the Wolf Pack, Nevada quarterback Tyler Stewart completed 74% of his passes (17 of 23) for 189 yards and 2 touchdowns with no interceptions; while, on the ground, Nevada rushed for 174 yards, also at more than 5 yards per carry, paced by James Butler with 123 yards at nearly 6 yards per carry, including a 50-yard touchdown run.

Notre Dame has a moderate size advantage over Nevada, including the Notre Dame offensive line being a bit bigger than Nevada’s defensive line. However, even within the same team, the defensive line is often not quite as big as an offensive line. And some teams, such as Southern Cal in some years, have a smaller defensive front while still mounting a ferocious defense, so size is not always the ultimate issue. A bigger question is whether moderately decent size is accompanied by strength, athleticism, quickness and game-day intensity.

Nevertheless, Notre Dame, with at least two good running backs (even if they took some hits against Texas) might want to bring some power football at Nevada, and maybe even do it extensively, if appropriately dialed in with a suitably skillful mix of play-calling.

If the tight ends can show good hands, Notre Dame also needs to work them into the passing game more, if that can help bring consistency to the passing game while giving flashy new starters at wide receiver a chance to settle into their game.

At the same time, if Notre Dame can have any kind of talent advantage, such as any superior speed going deep, they will need to at least explore that, and exploit it if they can, especially as the game progresses if Notre Dame also has any kind of advantage with regard to their conditioning.

Expect a potentially tough game though, factoring in all the logistical factors of the Irish coming off a tough long road-trip night game and a short week. And expect Nevada not to be awed, and to play with intensity, because of Nevada’s coach and the fact that this is Nevada’s biggest game of the year, likely being bigger than any Nevada bowl game.

If Nevada has a chance to win, they will bring their A-game and threaten to upset the Irish. And if Nevada can otherwise bring a dogfight, it’s going to be a long day for Notre Dame, especially if Nevada is opportunistic with any chances to gash the Van Gorder defense.

And if Notre Dame comes out flat, or otherwise has any issues with competitive character, if they let themselves get into the tank after Texas, or make mistakes or commit turnovers, watch out.