Irish face urgency, and a pivotal matchup, but does ‘Notre Dame’ really have a “must-win” game with Texas A&M? Only if the Irish become good enough for the playoff
It may be true, at least at the moment, that #16/17 Texas A&M is the only remaining top-25 Irish opponent. Yet it seems a bit silly to couch “must-win” game status within the notion that an 0-1 ‘Notre Dame’ is somehow a playoff contender.
Nevertheless, there still should be a sense of urgency to “right the ship” addressing weaknesses and making strides. And an 0-2 start would make it mathematically impossible to rise above .500 before October, and mathematically impossible to become bowl-eligible before November. That’s not playoff-eligible. That’s bowl-eligible.
But it might not be timely to analyze, as a playoff contender, an 0-1 Irish team with spotty play-calling, a somewhat tentative rookie quarterback, weak and inconsistent line play, UFO-like clock management problems, and other weaknesses.
Their inflated ranking is a residual after-effect of a preseason ranking influenced by last season, as is their inflated reputation. Their season-opening opponent looked lackluster as well, and, themselves, might well be destined to lose this weekend.
Their undoubtedly will be ebbing and flowing with the records and rankings of the mostly solid Irish opponents across the season, several of whom already in the “also receiving votes” category.
Time will tell whether this year’s Irish club will “find its feet” or, instead, turn out to be like some of those Florida State and Southern Cal teams in the past who struggled to stay above .500, yet were stocked with elite talent that would step up to do something fancy once in a while.
Bob Davie
Late in Bob Davie’s ‘Notre Dame’ tenure, late in a season with some losses accruing, the news media apparently thought it might be interesting to ruminate about whether the Irish would be interested in “just” going to a minor bowl game.
They even got Bob Davie, whose low-key affability and verbosity later helped him become a TV commentator, to go along with the imaginary exercise. He responded, why yes, they would be happy to go to a minor bowl.
The problem was *ahem* at the time of the article, they were not even bowl-eligible.
Sure enough, when the regular season was complete, they still were not bowl eligible, winding up with a losing record.
Texas A&M Only Remaining Currently-Ranked Opponent
As mentioned before, in 2025, #16/17 Texas A&M is the only remaining regular-season opponent still currently ranked, at least heading into their game in The House That Rockne Built. After an early season softening of ‘Notre Dame’s’ remaining strength of schedule, the Aggies momentarily seem like they might be the best remaining opportunity for a “quality win.”
Only Matters for the Playoff
On the other hand, that might only matter for the playoff, which, these days, is one and the same with the “major bowls.”
Being 0-2 against ranked opponents might be a label that loomed over the Irish for the duration, even if they manage wins against programs that are solid but unranked.
But unless the team improves, they are not really good enough for the playoff regardless.
With the team presently at 0-1 and looking a bit lackluster, it might not be timely to project, presume and assume about whether the Irish might be a playoff contender.
For any other bowls, including ACC-connected sub-major bowl games close to New Year’s, the Irish “resume” against ranked opponents might not really turn out to be all that pertinent.
All that matters might be the win-loss record; TV popularity and ticket sales; head-to-head matchups with ACC teams, a partner in bowl selections; and perhaps some vague sense of being able to put on a decent game.
The last time the Irish went to a sub-major bowl game, with a decent purse, it turned into a glorified exhibition game. The starting quarterbacks and a host of other quality players sat out, resting up for the NFL combine and draft.
Of course, ironically, the starting quarterback for the Irish, who was a bit of ringer to begin with as an older transfer, ended up going undrafted after playing hooky from the bowl game.
As an aside, for his part, the replacement starting quarterback, played well and they won, with a number of backups against backups, almost like a strike replacement team in the NFL.
One of the multiple reasons the Irish are in a mess right now, of course, is that the replacement quarterback from that bowl game, more recently, would go on to get a bit sandbagged and nudged out by the coaches in the current year. So the Irish entered the season without any scholarship quarterbacks with meaningful game experience, going up against a front-loaded schedule.
If the quarterback who left, Steve Angeli, hangs onto his current starting job at Syracuse, the potential NFL prospect could end up coming back to haunt the Irish when he goes up against them in the regular season finale. Last week he threw for more than 400 yards in an overtime win.
Strength of Schedule Ebbing and Flowing
As for rankings and records among remaining 2025 opponents, as always, a lot of ebbing and flowing can still occur across what can be a long season. Several remaining Irish opponents are already in the “also receiving votes” category. And at least some of the opponents who picked up losses early, even ugly losses, are actually solid programs making strides to regain their footing.
Urgency
Even though it is rather early to think of a game as a “must-win” game, it still might be helpful to think of the matchup with Texas A&M as “must-win,” to lend a needed sense of urgency.
In a broad sense, the Irish have looked lackluster while being winless, and the chance to go 1-1 against ranked opponents instead of 0-2 does make the game pivotal. That is the especially the case, given that the first opponent also looked lackluster, and seems destined to lose this weekend.
From a purely mathematical standpoint, if the Irish start 0-2, but go on to find a way to win against unranked opponents, it still would be mathematically impossible for them to rise above .500 until early October. And that would only be possible if they can beat a decent SEC team on the road as well as a 2024 playoff team.
As mentioned before, generally speaking, if the Irish start 0-2, and then somehow start “running the table,” it still would be mathematically impossible to become minimally bowl-eligible, for even a minor bowl, until early November.
If they picked up another loss along the way, November could get a bit dicey, counting down the weeks left to gain bowl eligibility.
That would especially be the case if either the Boston College game or Pitt game, with kickoff times still to-be-determined, turned into night games, followed up by tough games the following week, against, respectively, Navy and Syracuse.
The program has had a poor record the week after long-distance night games, raising suspicions that the institution is still have players take red-eye flights back, disrupting a sound training regimen and leaving lingering physiological deficits from sleep disruption and sleep deprivation.
Even back in the Charlie Weis era, the four-game losing skid that cost Weis his job included going 0-2 to unranked opponents the weeks after long-distance night games and apparent red-eye flights.
There are actually a few parallels. In Weis’ last year, they took a red-eye flight back from a good win, at night, in San Antonio, and lost a close game the following week to Navy. Later, they had a night game at Pitt. Presumably they took a red-eye flight again, and lost the following week to an unranked opponent.
This year, if they end up with a night game at Boston College, it is Navy they have to play the following week. If they might end up playing a night game at Pitt, as well, just like in Charlie Weis’s final season. This time it would be followed by a tough game hosting Syracuse, led by a quarterback on a mission.
In any event, future strength of schedule is not as clear as some might like to think. And it is a bit silly to make playoff predictions for a lackluster team sitting at 0-1, no matter how inflated their ranking.
Yet there certainly should be a sense of urgency about the Texas A&M game, perhaps more to do with the urgency of remedying multiple weaknesses and subpar execution.
(Steve Welsh – SCW 9.12.25)
