United States Deeply Concerned Over Russia's Navalny; U.S. Secretary of State Pompeo Issued Press Statement On Apparent Navalny Poisoning, Called for Investigation if Poisoning Confirmed

Saying that "[t]he United States is deeply concerned" over the matter, U.S. Secretary of State Michael R. Pompeo, on Tuesday, Aug. 25, 2020, issued a press statement [the text of which also appears below] on the poisoning of Russian opposition leader, anti-corruption crusader, Kremlin critic Alexei Navalny.

Yet Pompeo's language arguably seemed guarded and conditional, and seemed to position the United States in more of a supporting role behind the EU.

His statement referenced poisoning-related findings by "German medical experts"as "preliminary."

Pompeo's statement also was couched in phraseology that seemed to condition U.S. support for (the EU's call for) a comprehensive investigation upon some kind of confirmation of the German findings: "If the reports prove accurate, the United States supports the EU’s call for a comprehensive investigation and stands ready to assist in that effort." (emphasis added)

Note also the attenuated nature of U.S. support for the comprehensive investigation as being deferential to the EU. Instead of raising the prospect of the U.S. calling for a comprehensive investigation, Pompeo speaks of the EU calling for a comprehensive investigation and the U.S. supporting the EU doing so. And he indicates that even an indirect, supporting role for the United States would be conditioned upon the German conclusions being "proved accurate."

So Pompeo downgraded the German findings by characterizing them as preliminary; implied German findings that Navalny was poisoned still were not actually proven, that they still required some kind of further proof; and implied that the United States did not support even a third party calling for a comprehensive investigation until that vaguely referenced additional proof was obtained.

On the one hand, the somewhat lukewarm, measured U.S. position might seem weak, especially in the face of the severity of Navalny's condition and the nature of various attacks on Kremlin critics and opponents over time. Those attacks have tended to be ruthless yet calculated and murky in their circumstances.

Also interesting is that fact that, in other contexts, such as with U.S. sanctions against the Nord Stream II gas pipeline being constructed between Russia and Germany, it is the United States that is sometimes more aggressive against Russia than Europe, or specific European states. Yet the tone and forcefulness of U.S. policy also can vary among different elements of the U.S. government itself. For example, Congress sometimes takes a stronger position with Russia, or Russia-related sanctions, than the administration.

At the same time, multiple additional factors exist. While controversy over European energy trade with Russia, and potential European dependence upon Russia, carries significant economic and geopolitical heft, the Navalny matter strikes at the heart of Russian internal governance and criminal culpability for any individuals involved.

Then there is the accompanying question of Russian governmental legitimacy.

If any elements of Russian government are involved with a Navalny poisoning, that would further undermine the Kremlin's political and moral legitimacy, against a backdrop where Russian governmental legitimacy already stands on shakier ground because of such factors as the suppression of media and free speech, varying degrees of election fraud and other concerns.

Meanwhile, if the United States does expect the Putin regime to be implicated in an attempted assassination of Navalny, that conclusion would be so severe in its nature, under any circumstances, that some U.S. administration figures might believe they will be glad that they put up a show of moving slowly, deliberately and hesitatingly toward such a conclusion.

If such a result threatens to bring down the Putin regime, or create the implication that Putin should step down, just as Putin thought he was making himself strongman for life with recent constitutional changes, the administration also might prefer that the EU be seen as taking the lead for a matter occurring within their own "neighborhood."

While the Putin regime still might rail against outside pressure from the West, including those portions of "the West" that are part of Eastern Europe, yet now in the EU, that scenario arguably still would not be as incendiary within the context of Kremlin propaganda as more direct pressure from the United States.

Of course, given the usual Congressional posture on Russia, even an initial low-key attitude from the administration would not preclude the United States, as a whole, acting more decisively, through legislative impetus.

Even with the attitude of proceeding in a measured manner, seeking more medical facts, the administration already has struck a note of being "deeply concerned." And the Pompeo statement warns that, with added confirmation of the facts, there will, indeed, be a concerted multinational push, with U.S. support, for a comprehensive engagement of the matter, to get to the bottom of that which already has been regarded as deeply concerning.

Text of Pompeo Press Statement Follows:

"Confirmation of Reports on the Poisoning of Aleksey Navalny
Press Statement
Michael R. Pompeo, Secretary of State
August 25, 2020

The United States is deeply concerned by reported preliminary conclusions from German medical experts that Russian opposition activist Aleksey Navalny was poisoned. If the reports prove accurate, the United States supports the EU’s call for a comprehensive investigation and stands ready to assist in that effort.

Mr. Navalny’s family and the Russian people deserve to see a full and transparent investigation carried out, and for those involved to be held accountable. Our thoughts are with Mr. Navalny’s family and we hope for his full recovery."

Key Words: Russia, Navalny, Putin, Russian Politics, Assassinations, Poison, Videos, Russian Security Services, Spies, Russian Police, Russian Opposition, Pomeo, U.S.-Russian Relations

Navalny and Crowd File Photo, adapted from image at commons.wikimedia.org with credit to Evgeny Feldman, subject to Creative Commons license; original image at commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:FEV_1795_(cropped1).jpg, with license information at creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0/deed.en and creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0/legalcode